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中文简体China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released information on 6 May 2023 April global manufacturing PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, the second consecutive month of chain decline, once again fell to the lowest level since June 2020, and in line with the level of the December 2022 index. Sub-regionally, the Asian manufacturing PMI fell from the previous month, but the index is still above 50%; the African manufacturing PMI rose from the previous month, back to more than 50%; the European manufacturing PMI and the Americas manufacturing PMI fell from the previous month, both below 50%.
Comprehensive index changes, the global manufacturing PMI for seven consecutive months running below 50%, and continued to decline, showing that the global economic downward pressure has increased, but the economic recovery momentum is not strong. Recently the IMF (International Monetary Fund) released a report forecasting economic growth of 2.8% in 2023, which was revised downward by 0.1 percentage points from the January forecast. The current global economy has recovered, but the trend of weak growth has not changed, the problem of high inflation is also plaguing the global economic recovery, the United States continued to raise interest rates and the turbulence of the U.S. and European banking system on the global economy is still fermenting adverse effects.WTO in the latest "Global Trade Prospects and Statistics Report" predicts that in 2023 the growth of global trade will still be lower than the average, following the growth of 2.7 percent in 2022, with global merchandise trade volumes expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2023. The continuation of the contraction in global demand is a key consideration for the world's leading organizations in lowering their growth expectations for 2023.
European manufacturing continues to weaken with sequential PMI declines below 50 percent
In April 2023, the European manufacturing PMI stood at 47 percent, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with three consecutive month-on-month declines and nine consecutive months below 50 percent. In terms of major countries, the German, UK, French, and Italian manufacturing PMIs all declined to varying degrees from the previous month, with the indexes all at lower levels below 48 percent.
The comprehensive index changes and the European manufacturing sector continues to run weak. Eurostat data show that, after seasonal adjustment, in the first quarter of this year, the eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier. From the point of view of inflation data, the eurozone CPI remained at a high level of 7%, and the core CPI was 5.6%, slightly lower than the previous value. Under persistent inflationary pressure, the ECB has raised interest rates for seven consecutive times since July last year. If inflationary pressure fails to ease, the probability of the ECB continuing to raise interest rates remains high, and downside risks to the European economy remain. Geopolitical conflicts, contraction in global demand, and the credit crunch brought about by the banking crisis will all become factors dragging down Europe's economic recovery. European countries are facing the three major challenges of curbing inflation, sustaining economic recovery, and maintaining financial stability.
America's manufacturing sector maintains weakness as PMI remains below 50 percent
In April 2023, the Americas manufacturing PMI was 47.4 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, running below 50 percent for the sixth consecutive month, indicating that the overall manufacturing sector in the Americas continues to run on a weak trend. The main national data show that the United States and Canada's manufacturing PMI rose slightly over the previous month, but are below 48 percent, and Brazil's manufacturing PMI fell to below 45 percent.
ISM (U.S. Institute for Supply Management) report shows that the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose over the previous month, but still six consecutive months below 50%, and at a lower level of 47.1%. Sub-index changes show that the new orders index and production index rose last month, but still below 50%, especially the new orders index is still below 46% of the lower level, showing that demand continues to be a weaker trend is to plague the U.S. manufacturing industry to recover the main factors. The U.S. manufacturing industry continued downturn superimposed on the banking crisis further strengthened the market expectations of the U.S. economic recession. A report by the United States National Bureau of Economic Research shows that the probability of a recession in the United States has reached 67 percent.
Africa's manufacturing sector has recovered, with the PMI picking up to above 50 percent
In April 2023, Africa's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1 percent, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, ending the trend of three consecutive months of year-on-year decline. From a major country perspective, both Nigeria and South Africa's manufacturing PMIs rose significantly from the previous month and were the main forces driving the rebound in Africa's manufacturing PMIs.
The cash shortage crisis on Nigeria's impact on the weakening of the Nigerian manufacturing sector has seen a significant recovery, its manufacturing PMI rose to more than 53%. South Africa's manufacturing PMI rose 1.7 percentage points from the previous month and was close to 50 percent, indicating that the South African manufacturing sector also showed a faster recovery trend. The "Belt and Road" initiative and the continued promotion of the African Free Trade Area is conducive to the recovery of the African economy is an important force, for the construction of African infrastructure and trade facilitation has a more direct impact. However, it should be noted that the stability of Africa's economic recovery should be further observed. Against the backdrop of a weakening global economic trend, the IMF downgraded its 2023 economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 3.6 percent.
Asia's manufacturing growth slows, PMI still above 50 percent
In April 2023, Asia's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.6 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that Asia's manufacturing sector is still growing but at a slower rate than the previous month. Looking at major countries, China's manufacturing PMI fell to below 50 percent (49.2 percent); India's manufacturing PMI rose to above 57 percent; Thailand's PMI rose to above 60 percent; and manufacturing PMIs in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia remained below 50 percent.
China Manufacturing PMI
Comprehensive data changes, China's manufacturing sector in the first quarter of the high base and the impact of the lack of export demand in the growth rate have slowed down led to a slowdown in the growth of Asian manufacturing, but the level of Asian manufacturing PMI is still the highest in all regions. The world's major institutions in Asian countries, including China, are still expected to be better. the IMF expects China's economic growth in 2023 will be at 5.2 percent, and the contribution rate to the global economy will reach 34.9%. Morgan Stanley sees the Asian economy growing significantly faster than developed economies by the end of 2023. Interest rate hikes in Asia are also relatively modest and will have less impact on the economic recovery than in Europe and the US.
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